TV dramas feeling brunt of strike fallout

The writers’ strike in the US is over, but the damage apparently is not. During the past two weeks network television has finally returned to a relatively full complement of scripted shows, but viewers seem to be in shorter supply, even for television’s biggest hits. Shows like Grey’s Anatomy and Desperate Housewives on ABC, C.S.I. on CBS and House on Fox have come back with first-run episodes and recorded ratings among the lowest in their recent histories.

Grey’s, for example, returned with as much fanfare as ABC could muster a week ago and posted its worst ratings ever on a regular Thursday night. That same night C.S.I posted its worst rating since its first season, when it ran on Fridays. Then House, one of the most reliable dramas on television, returned on Monday, and its ratings dropped by 22 percent from its average ratings last fall.

Were not fans of television’s favorite shows so feverish with pent-up desire to see new episodes that they planted themselves in front of their plasma screens at the appointed hours? Apparently not. Did the strike by Hollywood writers, which shut down production for 14 weeks, drive viewers away to other entertainment options? Maybe.

But other factors might have contributed to the seemingly lukewarm reception for many of television’s top shows (as well as for numerous less popular ones, which fared even worse when they came back). A major concern for television executives is that some viewers may have lost (or abandoned) the thread of continuing story lines for some dramas, especially serialized or soapy ones like Grey’s Anatomy and Desperate Housewives. In addition, the strike’s length and the irregular schedule for bringing back network shows have confused viewers. “They haven’t been aware the shows are on again,” Preston Beckman, chief scheduler for Fox, said.

Compounding the problem, many serialized shows did not stay on the air during the strike because their repeats fail to pull in audiences. But every network has noticed that certain shows have been enjoying successful returns. “Some shows came back O.K.,” Mr. Beckman said, citing “the comedies on CBS.”

CBS’s lineup of Monday comedies has returned impressively, especially the network’s 9 p.m. hit, Two and a Half Men. NBC’s comedy The Office also has performed at or near its best ratings of the season. And Fox’s animated hit Family Guy returned on Sunday with a strong performance. The explanation for this success is simple, said David F. Poltrack, chief research officer for CBS. “Comedies don’t have continuing story lines,” he said. Viewers can always jump into a comedy without fear of being lost in a story line they may have forgotten.

Another network program executive said that the strike might have provided viewers with an excuse to bow out of certain series. “Some viewers may have used the strike as a way to get off the train of some serialized shows,” said the executive, who asked not to be identified because the comments could be construed as criticizing some shows. Most of the serialized dramas that have returned are on ABC, including not only Desperate Housewives and Grey’s Anatomy, but also Ugly Betty and Brothers and Sisters.

House has serialized elements, but it is mostly a medical procedural. It had been closing in on Grey’s Anatomy as television’s top drama before the strike. A main reason that House could have underperformed in its return, Mr. Poltrack suggested, was that viewers simply didn’t expect to see it on a Monday. The show’s regular night for several seasons had been Tuesday.

Concern about whether viewers would be willing to reconnect with particular shows seems to have led some networks to postpone the return of some series until next season. ABC has held back its promising newcomer Pushing Daisies, while NBC is not bringing back two dramas with serial elements, Chuck and Life, this spring.

NBC made a potentially more costly decision (at least in terms of this year’s ratings race) to postpone the return of its most popular series, Heroes, until the fall. Restarting a complicated story like the one on Heroes for just a few weeks this spring did not strike the producers or the network as wise. For a similar reason Fox decided not to initiate what would have been a truncated version of television’s most serialized drama, 24, instead preserving its format of 24 straight hours of episodes by shelving it until the winter.

Another unknown is how much of the decline this spring may be attributed to the increased use of digital video recorders. Those viewings would not show up yet in the ratings. One other significant factor in the ratings declines, mentioned by several network program executives, is less alarming to them because it happens every year: spring fever.

Mr. Poltrack noted that the strike hit right at the peak period for television viewing, January and February, and the shows have returned just at the time when viewers traditionally drift away from network shows. Viewing levels for the networks always decline in spring, and starting last year, the early arrival of daylight saving time exacerbated that decline. But this year the spring effect appears even worse. Although television watching over all has been up slightly during the past four weeks, all the networks are showing year-to-year declines in their viewing totals except NBC, which is flat. Compared with last spring, CBS is down 8 percent, ABC is down 15 percent, and Fox is down 11 percent.

The question is whether the hits that lost some of their heat this spring can be restored to full health next fall. Not surprisingly, network executives predict they can be. “Viewers will likely come back,” Mr. Poltrack said. He noted that people continued to watch television at the same level during the strike. “Just as in the summer,” he said, “when we see viewers migrating to cable, and then we see them come back to network television in the fall, during the strike they migrated to cable.”

Network executives conceded that the strike had had a significant effect on the season and on some individual shows. They predicted the fallout would linger at least into the fall, thus providing an excuse for producers who might see their shows fail.